Job Market Paper

Journal Articles

1. The Rise of H-2A: Causal Evidence on Guestworker Substitution for Settled Farm Labor

   Aakansha Jain

   2026

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   The U.S. settled non-citizen agricultural workforce has declined substantially since the mid-2000s, while H-2A temporary guestworker certifications have grown more than fivefold over the same period. This paper asks whether the rise of H-2A reflects a causal response to the decline in settled farm labor, and estimates the substitution elasticity between the two workforces. Using a panel of settled non-citizen agricultural labor (PANCAL) constructed from the American Community Survey across 740 U.S. commuting zones over 2008-2024, I instrument for changes in the settled workforce using a shift-share design that interacts baseline 2000 non-citizen agricultural labor shares with two sources of national variation in immigration enforcement: Border Patrol budget shocks and agricultural-season border encounters. IV estimates imply that each settled non-citizen agricultural worker lost is replaced by 1.7 to 2.5 H-2A certifications (Hansen J p = 0.128). The findings show that the expansion of H-2A has been driven by the contraction of the settled farm workforce, reshaping the composition of U.S. agricultural labor and raising design questions for guestworker policy.

Publications

Journal Articles

1. Are College Towns Really Recession Proof?

   R. Manternach, Aakansha Jain, Peter F. Orazem, and L. Soborowicz

   2025

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Book Chapters

1. Youth Labor Markets in High- and Low-Income Countries

   Aakansha Jain, Claudio Montenegro, and Peter F. Orazem

   2026

Working Papers

Journal Articles

1. Trends in College Wage Premiums in India, 1987-2012

   Aakansha Jain

   2025

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   This paper traces how the college-versus-high-school earnings gap evolved in India during the decades when tertiary enrollment expanded rapidly. Drawing on five waves of the National Sample Survey, I estimate conventional Mincer wage equations and complement them with two-part Cragg models that separate the extensive margin (labor-force participation) from the intensive margin (weekly pay, conditional on work). Repeated cross-sections are organized into synthetic birth cohorts to track wage premiums over time. The college premium rose throughout the sample period despite a near-tripling of tertiary enrollment, and rose unevenly across cohorts: older cohorts continue to command rising premiums while the youngest has begun to flatten.

2. An Overview of the 2024 Iowa State University Alumni Survey

   A. Andrade, J. Eyles, Aakansha Jain, K. Kimle, Peter F. Orazem, and 1 more author

   2025

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   Documents the design, sample construction, and descriptive findings of the 2024 Iowa State University alumni survey, a follow-up to the 2008 survey (Jolly, Yu, and Orazem 2009). Covers cohorts graduating from 1982 to 2023, with over 5,000 usable Bachelor’s-degree responses. Reports patterns of entrepreneurship, employment, education, and geographic mobility across 41 years of ISU graduates.

Works in Progress

Journal Articles

1. Does Broadband Close the Rural Education Gap?

   Aakansha Jain and John V. Winters

   2026

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   This project examines whether broadband expansion raises college enrollment and slows out-migration among rural-born cohorts, and whether these effects are larger in education deserts. Uses the staggered rollout of the FCC Connect America Fund (CAF) Phase II as a source of exogenous variation in rural broadband access. Estimation requires restricted Census data accessible through the FSRDC at ISU under Project 3044 (access expected June 2026).

2. Returns to Farming Among ISU Alumni

   Aakansha Jain, Insoo Cho, and Peter F. Orazem

   2026

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   Uses the Iowa State University alumni surveys to estimate the earnings returns to entering farming among ISU graduates, compared with returns in non-farming occupations. Work planned to begin Summer 2026.

3. Firm Entry and Serial Entrepreneurship Among ISU Alumni

   Aakansha Jain, Daniel Lin, and Peter F. Orazem

   2026

   Abs

   Examines how local labor market conditions at graduation shape the timing of entrepreneurial entry among ISU alumni, using the 2008 and 2024 waves of the ISU alumni survey. The Iowa unemployment rate at graduation has a significant and persistent negative effect on business entry peaking in years 10-14 after graduation; the U.S. unemployment rate has no analogous effect, consistent with local labor market conditions delaying entrepreneurial entry.

Policy Reports and Public Engagement

Journal Articles

1. Where Do They Go? Migration Patterns of Iowa State University Alumni

   Grant Crespi and Aakansha Jain

   2026

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2. How a Land Grant College Affects Business and Job Creation

   A. Andrade, J. Eyles, Aakansha Jain, K. Kimle, Peter F. Orazem, and 1 more author

   2025

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